China's Q3 GDP Grows 4.5%, Beating Forecasts on Export Surge
China's economy outpaced expectations in Q3, driven by electronics exports tied to AI demand, though consumer spending lagged factory output.
China's economy expanded faster than analysts anticipated in the third quarter of 2025, with gross domestic product rising 4.5% year-on-year between July and September, according to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The result topped economist forecasts and marked an acceleration from the 4.3% growth recorded in the second quarter.
The headline figure was powered largely by a surge in exports, with industrial output — particularly in electronics — outpacing domestic consumption by a wide margin. Demand linked to the global artificial intelligence buildout has bolstered Chinese manufacturers, fueling shipments of components and finished goods to overseas markets.
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The divergence between robust factory production and comparatively tepid consumer spending remains a structural concern for policymakers in Beijing, who have sought to rebalance the economy toward domestic demand. While the export-driven momentum has kept growth on pace toward the government's annual target, analysts note the reliance on external markets introduces vulnerability to trade policy shifts and global demand fluctuations.
The better-than-expected print offers a degree of reassurance after a period of uncertainty surrounding property sector stress and subdued household confidence. Whether the AI-linked export tailwind proves durable will depend heavily on sustained capital investment in data infrastructure by major economies and any changes to trade restrictions targeting Chinese technology goods.
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